The Impact of Migration on Global Politics and Security

Migration has presented a very important challenge at the global level in recent years, especially with the high economic disparity between countries and regions, wars and crises, and political instability. Even though migration policies and the legal system of asylum are at a solid level for the needs of society, the dilemma is still presented as to whether the flow of migrants affects and determines global politics and security or how this impact is at specific levels, especially at the level of income or economic capacity of regions or states. This is also the basic purpose of this study, where official data from the World Bank and United Nations give concise answers to the impact of the flow of migrants on political stability and global security. It turns out that at the global level, the flow of migrants does not represent a significant challenge in global and security policies, but at lower levels, according to countries, income represents a very significant determinant in political stability as well as Military Expenditure.

Generally speaking, migration determines a country’s economic, social, and security image. After the increased migration that includes both refugees and asylum seekers in the last decade as a result of political instability, poverty, Arab Spring and Syrian war and wars in the recent past and the recent war in Ukraine and Israel, the dilemma arises whether migration as a phenomenon (in terms of percentage) has an impact on political stability and security at the world level. This is the basis of this study, which, through statistically valid data from the World Bank and the United Nations, analyzes and generalizes a conclusion about the impact of migration on political stability and security at the global level.

Introduction

Migration, as a statistical phenomenon, comes in many shapes and forms. We can talk about internal, external, permanent, temporary, positive, negative, etc. There is no doubt that the constant movement of people from one place to another determines migration as a complex variable, which not only depends on the conditions created in a society but is also directly determined by them. Other pre-existing and severe displacement situations around the world continued or increased, pushing the number of globally displaced people to historic highs in 2022, reaching nearly 103 million, as estimated by the High Commissioner of the United Nations for Refugees (UNHCR, 2023).

Mechanical movement or migration explains a permanent or temporary change in the place of residence of the population and, as such, is determined positive if, through its occurrence, the population of a certain country increases or negative, in case of a decrease in the number of the population in a given country. In fact, positive migration itself is equivalent to the term immigration, which usually appears in highly developed social conditions, positive economic development, and social cohesion in a certain country (Ewing, 2014).

“Migrants and refugees, if they are integrated, can have a big part in reviving the economy. It is important to maintain a balanced approach. Migrants are not only a problem but can also contribute to societies. In Europe, there is a decrease in the birth rate, and migration to the United States has shown that migrants from South America are an additional impetus for the domestic economy.” (Joseph, 2023).

Negative migration corresponds to the concept of emigration, i.e., leaving the home country due to low conditions of social cohesion, the negative growth rate of the economy, and thus low living standards in the country itself, where the population leaves in the hope of a better life and well-being. Migration in each correlation is related to statistical methods that make it easier to monitor the state of the axis along which it moves (Baele & Sterck, 2015).

Migration and Global Politics with Security Levels between 2010–2022

The concreteness of the occurrence of migration and the migration movements themselves is an important part of the explanation of the very distribution of the geographical map of the world as we know it today. Migrations are necessary and result in topographical, national, and ethnic change (Bello, 2022). The Middle East, as a central place for analysis, through research, shows a series of irregularities in the national development of its individual units. This is precisely why we see it growing into the most turbulent geographic region today, showing no signs of abating the passions historically known as long-lasting (Beňuška & Nečas, 2021). If we look at the reasons for this occurrence of destabilization, we will notice a series of events that, through the method of conclusion, always result in one unique way: armed conflict. The conflict is an amplitude of internal unrest and revolt among the people of the Middle East. It is precisely the Arab Spring with the Syrian crisis that is branded as the biggest refugee crisis and the biggest armed conflict of the 21^st century. Such a label is a sufficient indicator of the enormity of the problem we are facing, and through the analysis, we come to the illumination and concretization of the abstractness of the problem and the taboos that follow it (Beňuška & Nečas, 2021). The structure and content of this section clearly show the confirmation of one of the two auxiliary hypotheses set in the paper, i.e., that history and all military and political activities in the world have caused the spread and deepening of migrant movements (Csanyi, 2020).

Based on that, the World Bank (n.d.), according to the data processing methodology, defines political stability and absence of violence/terrorism ас as measures of perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and/or politically motivated violence, including terrorism. The range of the country’s score on the aggregate indicator, in units of standard normal distribution, is approximately –2.5 to 2.5 (World Bank, n.d.).

On the other hand, the immigrant share of the population—international migrant stock (% of the population)—according to the United Nations, international migrant stock is the number of people born in a country other than that in which they live. It also includes refugees. The data included here to estimate the international migrant stock at a particular time are mainly obtained from population censuses. The data are derived from the people who are born in a different country from the one they have a residence in, also known by the term foreign-born population. According to the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), as of 2022, the global number of international migrants was estimated to be 281 million. International migrants comprise some 3.5% of the global population, compared to 2.8% in 2000 and 2.3% in 1980 (UNHCR, 2023).

As a component and indicator of the level of security, а military budget (or military expenditure), also known as a defense budget, refers to the allocation of financial resources by a country to support the establishment and upkeep of armed forces or any other necessary means for defense purposes. Military expenditure data are derived from the NATO definition, which includes both current and capital expenses related to armed forces. This includes funding for peacekeeping forces, defense ministries, other government agencies involved in defense projects, paramilitary forces deemed prepared for military operations, and military space activities.

The World Bank (n.d.) defines GDP as the total gross value added by all resident producers in the economy, incorporating any product taxes and subtracting any subsidies not already included in the product values. An international dollar is equivalent to the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar in the United States. GDP is essentially the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy, accounting for product taxes and excluding subsidies not factored into product values (World Bank, n.d.).

Method

For this purpose, the study focuses on the distribution of data (indices) from the World Bank and the United Nations on 4 main components or variables that are structured as part of the political stability and security system, namely, political stability, immigrant share of the population, military expenditure and GDP at the world level, then at the low-, middle-, and high-income country levels between 2010–2022. Through an internal correlation between these variables, a conclusion is made about the impact of migration on political stability and security globally.

The research question that the present study aims to answer is whether and to what extent political stability and security in the world are determined by the influx of migration. The main hypothesis is that political stability and security in the world are determined by the influx of migration.

Results

So, as we highlighted above, to analyze the potential impact of migration on global politics and security, after defining the four components of political stability and security, in Table I, we present the values (indices) of GDP, military expenditure, political stability, and migrants share population in the world, low-, middle-, and high-income country levels between 2010–2022. Just to clarify, low-income countries (26) are the ones with the weakest economies when assessed by the World Bank (n.d.). These countries are characterized by a high index of emigration to middle and high-income countries. Middle-income countries (54) are defined as economies with gross national income (GNI) per capita between $1,136 and $13,845 as of 2024. They often have low immigration and asylum-seeking indices. A high-income economy (71) is defined by the World Bank as a country with a gross national income per capita of over US$13,845 or more in 2022. These countries have a high migration index (up to 14).

Table I. Annual Values for GDP, Military Expenditure, Political Stability, and Migrants Share Population between 2010–2020

Variable	Group	Year
		2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
GDP	World average	4.44	3.63	3.18	3.11	3.30	2.69	3.06	3.21	3.07	2.80	−4.79	5.45	4.22
	Low-income	6.68	3.37	1.50	3.05	3.97	1.16	2.73	3.37	3.76	4.10	−0.44	2.57	4.05
	Middle-income	4.31	3.74	4.48	3.31	2.62	2.53	2.58	3.21	3.19	2.57	−7.83	6.78	4.64
	High-income	2.26	2.49	1.58	1.67	2.53	2.23	2.82	2.33	2.19	2.14	−6.59	6.45	5.26
Military expenditure	World average	1.95	1.86	1.89	1.94	2.01	1.96	1.91	1.87	1.79	1.82	1.94	1.88	2.00
	Low-income	1.98	1.89	1.79	1.85	1.80	1.71	1.53	1.45	1.44	1.61	1.66	1.67	1.86
	Middle-income	1.73	1.67	1.72	1.84	2.00	1.77	1.67	1.62	1.57	1.67	1.77	1.60	1.50
	High-income	2.03	1.95	2.01	2.01	2.07	2.09	2.09	2.04	2.02	2.03	2.23	2.23	2.10
Political stability	World average	−0.03	−0.03	−0.03	−0.03	−0.02	−0.03	−0.03	−0.03	−0.03	−0.03	−0.04	−0.04	−0.04
	Low-income	−1.06	−1.11	−1.15	−1.21	−1.28	−1.24	−1.28	−1.29	−1.29	−1.24	−1.32	−1.33	−1.33
	Middle-income	−0.11	−0.11	−0.09	−0.07	−0.03	−0.06	−0.05	−0.05	−0.05	−0.06	−0.06	−0.06	−0.04
	High-income	0.76	0.79	0.77	0.78	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.77	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.76	0.74
Migrants share	World average	3.21	3.23	3.26	3.28	3.31	3.34	3.36	3.39	3.42	3.44	3.47	3.50	3.52
	Low-income	1.61	1.60	1.59	1.58	1.58	1.57	1.56	1.56	1.55	1.54	1.54	1.53	1.52
	Middle-income	1.28	1.29	1.31	1.32	1.34	1.35	1.37	1.38	1.40	1.41	1.43	1.44	1.46
	High-income	12.44	12.60	12.76	12.92	13.08	13.24	13.40	13.56	13.72	13.88	14.04	14.20	14.36

According to Table II, after processing the data, it turns out that the average GDP at the global level for the last decade (2010–2022) is 2.87 (SD = 2.43), compared to the average GDP of 3.07 in the lowest income countries, 2.78 in middle-income countries, and 2.10 in high-income countries.

Table II. Descriptive Statistics for GDP, Military Expenditure, Political Stability, and Migrants Share Population in the World, Low Middle, and High-income Country Level between 2010–2022

Variable	Group	N	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	Std. deviation
GDP	World average	13	−4.79094	5.44657	2.8746666	2.42872686
	Low-income	13	−0.43833	6.68170	3.0670615	1.71569156
	Middle-income	13	−7.82667	6.78006	2.7786246	3.40241434
	High-income	13	−6.59113	6.45471	2.1037850	2.97046256
Military expenditure	World average	13	1.79299	2.00592	1.9088697	0.06518134
	Low-income	13	1.44099	1.98067	1.7117932	0.17071151
	Middle-income	13	1.50223	1.99922	1.7035828	0.12723334
	High-income	13	1.95308	2.23010	2.0697664	0.08202594
Political stability	World average	13	−0.03531	−0.02485	−0.0308429	0.00410827
	Low-income	13	−1.33363	−1.06257	−1.2412475	0.08562821
	Middle-income	13	−0.11300	−0.03077	−0.0643474	0.02486618
	High-income	13	0.73756	0.79210	0.7652982	0.01659246
Migrants Share	World average	13	3.20539	3.52377	3.3645820	0.10332729
	Low-income	13	1.52304	1.60538	1.5642080	0.02672365
	Middle-income	13	1.27587	1.45897	1.3674180	0.05942137
	High-income	13	12.44211	14.35964	13.4008740	0.62230822

Furthermore, the average military expenditure at the global level (M = 1.90; SD = 0.06) is higher than that in low-income (M = 1.71) and middle-income countries (M = 1.70) but lower than that in high-income countries (M = 2.07). The average political stability at the global level is −0.03 (SD = 0.004). When we look at the countries at different income levels, the highest political stability is found in high-income countries (M = 0.76), followed by middle-income (M= −0.06) and low-income countries (M = −1.24). The average flow of migrants at the global level is 3.36 (SD = 0.10). In comparison, countries with high income have a higher average (M = 13.40) with a high flow of migrants, followed by the countries with low income (M = 1.56) and middle income (M = 1.37) with a lower flow of migrants. As seen in Table II and Fig. 1, it is worth emphasizing that the 2020 world GDP is negative due to the COVID-19 pandemic. All this at the global level is presented in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1. The average levels of GDP, military expenditure, political stability and migrants, between 2010–2022.

After the reflection and descriptive processing of the World Bank and United Union data for GDP, military expenditure, political stability, and migrants share population in the world, low middle and high-income country levels between 2010–2022, in the following, we present Pearson’s correlation analysis-it for the connection and determination of one variable from the other, namely the potential determination of the flow of migrants in politics and global security which was structured by four elemental components (according to the World Bank) including GDP, Military Expenditure, Political Stability and Migrants share population.

Table III presents Pearson’s correlation coefficients for the potential correlation of GDP, military expenditure, political stability, and migrant population share at the global or world level. According to the coefficients of the table, we find that there is no significant statistical correlation between GDP, military expenditure, political stability, and migrants share population at the global or world level. In other words, the flow of migrants does not determine or affect the stability of global politics and security.

Table III. Correlations of Political Stability, Migrants, Military Expenditure, and GDP at the World Level

	Political stability	Migrants	Military expenditure	GDP
Political stability	1
Migrants	−0.46	1
Military expenditure	0.28	−0.09	1
GDP	0.14	−0.22	−0.08	1

The analyses continue with the potential correlations between the variables GDP, military expenditure, political stability, and migrants share population, but at the level of low-, middle-, and high-income countries. In Table IV, we highlight the potential correlations between political stability and migrants, as well as correlations at the low, middle, and high-income countries levels. As we can see, all coefficients are significant, even the high negative coefficient (r = −0.89, p < 0.01) between migrants and the political stability of low-income countries. In other words, with the increase in the number of migrants, the political stability of low-income countries decreases significantly, and vice versa.

Table IV. Correlations of Political Stability in Low-, Middle-, and High-income Countries with Migrants

	Migrants
Migrants
Political Stability–Low-income countries	−0.89**
Political Stability–Middle-income countries	0.71**
Political Stability–High-income countries	−0.73**

Table IV also presents a high positive coefficient (R = 0.71, p < 0.01) between migrants and political stability in middle-income countries, in other words with the increase in the number of migrants the political stability of middle-income countries increases significantly, and vice versa. As well as a high negative coefficient (R = −0.73, p < 0.01) between migrants and the political stability in high-income countries, in other words with the increase in the number of migrants, the political stability of high-income countries decreases significantly, and vice versa. So, political stability is determined by the flow of migration in the graves from the level of income countries, even though the large flow of migrants significantly reduces the political stability of low and high-income countries, despite middle-income countries where the number of migrants significantly increases political stability.

Next, in Table V, we present Pearson’s correlation coefficients between military expenditure and migrants according to low-, middle-, and high-income countries level.

Table V. Correlations of Military Expenditure in Low-, Middle-, and High-income Countries with Migrants

	1
Migrants
Military Expenditure–Low-income countries	−0.51
Military Expenditure–Middle-income countries	−0.51
Military Expenditure–High-income countries	0.68*

The result is only a significant positive correlation coefficient (R = 0.68, p < 0.05) between the flow of migrants and military expenditure high-income countries, in other words, with the increase in the number of migrants, the military expenditure in high-income countries also increases, so, the large number of migrants burdens the security of countries with high-income.

Next, in Table VI, we present the Pearson correlation coefficients between GDP and migrants according to low, middle, and high-income country levels.

Table VI. Correlations of GDP in Low-, Middle-, and High-income Countries with Migrants

	1
Migrants–Low-income countries
GDP–Low-income countries	−0.28
GDP–Middle-income countries	−0.24
GDP–High-income countries	0.43

According to the coefficients from Table VI, there is no significant correlation between GDP and migrants according to low, middle, and high-income countries level. Even though the expectation was a positive association of GDP in middle-income countries with the number of migrants because they are also treated as an additional labor force, it has turned out to be the opposite for the last decade.

Conclusion

Given the active military hotspots and unbalanced regions, migration policy and the asylum legal system are undoubtedly a current world issue. Migration and asylum in themselves are historically permanent notions, which, through the annals of the past, continue to this day. Although the issue of migration is legally and technically regulated, political instability, poverty, and wars can produce a large number of migrants who would significantly change the political, economic, and social system of a country, regardless of the level of income. As to the impact of this influx of migrants on political stability and security, our findings from processing data from the World Bank and the United Nations provide a concise answer. So, we found no significant statistical correlation between GDP, military expenditure, political stability, and migrants share population at the global or world level as four elementary components of Global Politics and security according to the World Bank. So, in other words, the flow of migrants does not determine or affect the stability of global politics and security.

According to the country’s income level, we found a highly negative correlation between migrants and political stability in low-income countries. In other words, with the increase in the number of migrants, the political stability of low-income countries decreases significantly, and vice versa. Therefore, low-income countries cannot afford more migrants, so they are easily politically destabilized.

On the other hand, we found a highly positive correlation between migrants and political stability in middle-income countries. In other words, with the increase in the number of migrants, the political stability of middle-income countries increases significantly, and vice versa. This is undoubtedly related to these countries’ ability and level of preparation, mainly presented as transit countries for migrants. These countries benefit from financial aid with European and international agreements in such situations.

A high negative correlation exists between migrants and the political stability of high-income countries. In other words, with the increase in migrants, the political stability of high-income countries decreases significantly, and vice versa. So, political stability is determined by the flow of migration in the graves from the level of income countries, even though the large flow of migrants significantly reduces the political stability of low and high-income countries, despite Middle-income countries where the number of migrants significantly increases political stability.

Finally, we found a significant positive correlation between the flow of migrants and military expenditure in high-income countries. in other words, with the increase in the number of migrants, the military expenditure in high-income countries also increases. Therefore, the large number of migrants burdens the security of countries with high incomes.

So, at the global level, the flow of migrants does not represent a significant challenge in global security policies. However, according to countries’ income at lower levels, it represents a significant determinant of political stability and military expenditure.